IMS and the Future of Statistics and Probability
Michael Kosorok giving his IMS Presidential Address
Michael R. Kosorok gave the IMS Presidential Address on August 12, 2024, at the 11th Bernoulli–IMS World Congress in Bochum. He began by outlining his personal connections with IMS, described some of the functions and activities of the institute, and then moved to looking at critical thinking, before looking at how data science and artificial intelligence play a role in our future.
MY PERSONAL JOURNEY WITH THE IMS
I formed an impression of the IMS early in my career. In 1992 I was an Assistant Professor of Statistics/Biostatistics at the University of Wisconsin–Madison; by about 1998 I was learning about empirical processes, and I had set myself the goal of IMS fellowship. I organized some conferences as IMS Program Chair or Co-chair (the 2002 WNAR–IMS meeting, the 2006 ENAR–IMS spring meeting, and the 2009 JSM); I joined The Annals of Statistics as Associate Editor from 2004–21; and I achieved IMS Fellowship in 2007.
WHAT DOES IMS DO?
IMS, of course, organizes and sponsors many conferences, such as this World Congress. It also has many publications. There are the journals: the Annals (of Probability, of Statistics, of Applied Probability and of Applied Statistics) and Statistical Science. The other IMS publications include the IMS Monographs and IMS Textbooks series with Cambridge University Press, and the IMS Bulletin. The Institute co-sponsors six journals and supports five, with another three journals having IMS Affiliated status.
IMS supports New Researchers with travel grants and early-career awards, and bestows a range of other professional awards and named lectures for people in different career stages (see https://imstat.org/ims-awards/).
All these activities help to define and improve the fields of statistics and probability, and applications of both, and related research areas. Further, it helps to establish a culture of rigor in these areas.
THE PEOPLE OF IMS (INCLUDING YOU AND ME)
Who are the people who make the Institute run? Elyse Gustafson is the Executive Director; Tati Howell is IMS Bulletin editor; publications are managed by Patrick Kelly (IMS Production Editor), with Geri and Kristina Mattson (of Mattson Publishing Services); the website is managed by Laila Lunderman; and your dues and subscriptions are handled by Larissa Puryear.
The IMS Past President [at the time of this Address] is Peter Bühlmann. Peter is wise and patient, he remembers everything, is an outstanding researcher, and is kind.
The other Executive Committee members are President-elect [again, at the time of this Address] Tony Cai, Treasurer Jiashun Jin, Program Secretary Annie Qu, and Executive Secretary Peter Hoff.
The IMS Council is comprised of the Executive Committee, the nine Editors and Co-Editors of the five core IMS journals, and 15 elected Council Members.
Then there are the IMS Committees. We have 18 standing committees with over 150 committee positions. A semi-random sampling of these committees includes the following: Asia Pacific-Rim Meeting; IMS China; Co-Sponsorship; Brown and Zelen Awards; Hall Prize; Travel Awards; Equity and Diversity; Professional Code of Conduct; Fellows; Special Lectures; Finance; Memorials; Publications; Outreach; Nominations; Selection of Administrative Officers; Selection of Editors; and the New Researchers Group.
Finally, there are the members of IMS (roughly 4,700 people), and we should not forget the links with our many collaborators and students.
YOU AND ME AS RESEARCHERS: A PERSPECTIVE
I’d like to talk next about a 2008 essay by Martin A. Schwartz, “The importance of stupidity in scientific research” (Journal of Cell Science 121(11), 1771; DOI:10.1242/jcs.033340). Schwartz is the Robert W. Berliner Professor of Medicine (Cardiology), Cell Biology & Biomedical Engineering at Yale University (h-index 124). In essence, what he said is that at some point in our PhD programs, we realize that no one actually knows the answer to our research question, and we need to find a solution. When we do science right, we realize that the amount we don’t know is vast, basically infinite. We need to better mentor our students on how to be “productively stupid” (recognize, embrace and work with what we don’t know), in other words, “If we don’t feel stupid it means we’re not really trying.”
The Role of Insecurity and Confidence
We need to be aware of what we don’t know and areas of difficulty for us (our weaknesses) as researchers. We also need to be aware of our strengths. If we are feeling insecure, we are in that moment emphasizing our weaknesses; if we’re feeling confident, we are emphasizing our strengths. Success requires balance between these extremes – and the ability to not take either of them personally. Some of the best theoretical researchers struggle initially with at least some areas of knowledge that they eventually become expert at.
Managing Ups and Downs in Research
If we are doing research right, we will have ups and downs. If we have no ups, then we need mentoring guidance or we need to go into another research area. If we have no downs, then we are not taking enough risks or we are not asking meaningful enough questions. Again, we need to be careful to not take either personally. We need to learn from our ups and downs, including how to progress in both situations. We also need to encourage others through this process.
Responding to Criticism and Compliments
We all have to learn which feedback to listen to and which to ignore. We need both humility (which is not the same thing as insecurity) and confidence. We should learn from critical feedback when possible but not take it personally (the same is true for compliments). A crucial skill is to learn how to give useful feedback in our review processes: don’t make it personal.
Let me give an example (since I am a musician) of the composer Jean Sibelius and his Eighth Symphony. Finnish composer Jean Sibelius (1865–1957) was widely regarded as his country’s greatest composer, but his perfectionism and self-doubt, combined with both extremely positive and extremely negative criticism (including harsh comparisons with Arnold Schoenberg) from critics, resulted in him being unable to move forward creatively. As a consequence, he died before completing his Symphony No. 8 after many years of working on it.
So, it’s important that we can find ways to manage ups and downs, both criticisms and complements, have fun and continually improve.
The Role of Critical Thinking
The steps of critical thinking are basically as follows:
- Identify the question, problem, or goal
- Identify gaps in knowledge to be filled
- Gather the needed information and data, ensuring appropriate representativeness and diversity of perspectives, and avoiding bias and checking errors (rigor)
- Analyze and evaluate, repeating above as needed
- Distill conclusions and disseminate results
What is our role in critical thinking? We should ensure rigorous critical thinking in our own fields, and we should assist collaborators in other fields in the appropriate use of our results and tools.
Statistics is the science of the scientific method… and the scientific method is a form of critical thinking. We should advocate for universal critical thinking skills and training in every sector of society.
Who Decides the Important Questions?
Michel Talagrand received the 2024 Abel Prize for his “groundbreaking contributions to probability theory and functional analysis, with outstanding applications in mathematical physics and statistics.” His advice on this question—from his acceptance speech for the 2019 Shaw Prize—was this:
“I wish I could say that I had a grand vision of mathematics but the reality is very different. I know little mathematics. I simply tried solving problems which came my way, always attempting to go to the bottom of things. I did not work on fashionable areas, but I focused on simple universal structures because there lay important questions. I owe a great debt to Gilles Pisier, Vitali Milman, and others, who introduced me to the areas where I became the most successful. Modern science is like a magnificent temple in perpetual construction. I am proud I could contribute one small brick to its foundations.” (see https://michel.talagrand.net/S.pdf)
So, this underscores the importance of curiosity, humility, collaboration, and mentoring.
DATA SCIENCE AND ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE
Let’s move to a new topic, Data Science (DS) and Artificial Intelligence (AI). We in the IMS disciplines are central to this, but what should we (IMS) do about it? What about conferences and publications? We have recently established an IMS ad hoc committee on Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence, co-chaired by Xihong Lin (Harvard) and Andrew Gordon Wilson (NYU Courant).
Should we follow or lead? We do both now, but we should lead more.
The positives and negatives of AI are being widely discussed. Consider The Bad first. AI could rule the world. AI could supplant and surpass all human knowledge and creativity. AI could increase social inequalities, biases and contention. AI could enable humans to stop growing intellectually and stop thinking for themselves.
But there’s also The Good: AI could help us do better with hard tasks. AI could help us learn more effectively, and more fully achieve our intellectual potential. And AI could help us be fairer and more inclusive.
What unique strengths can we bring to AI? IMS researchers should be involved in any and all aspects of AI for which our perspective can be helpful, for example: the underlying theoretical foundations; performance guarantees; applications; better algorithms… Anything which does, could, or should involve probability, foundations, data analysis, inference about the real world, etc. We may also need to learn more in computer science and in other areas.
GOING FORWARD
In closing, I would like to thank you all for your many important contributions to science, mathematics, society and to the IMS itself. Thank you for the privilege of being able to be a part of this important work.
Please feel free to reach out to me and the other leaders of IMS with any suggestions. Please let us know if you want to volunteer. I wish you all success and fulfillment in your careers.