Congratulations to the two student members who sent correct answers to this puzzle: Yudong Chen (University of Cambridge, UK) and Zhen Huang (Columbia University, USA). Here’s Anirban DasGupta’s solution:
Using the notation of the problem, the recorded values are iid with ,
where , and is the CDF of the exponential distribution with mean . On using the formula for , we get
as .
Thus, even for large , there is a small persistent bias in the estimator that we actually use in real life, and the real life estimator is inconsistent.